Look for Analog Matches in This Box
North Lat
West Lon
South Lat
East Lon
Remember that longitude runs from 0 to 360 (no E-W).
Click HERE for a blank map with labelled grid lines.
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Forecast is for This Box
North Lat
West Lon
South Lat
East Lon
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Last month to start evaluation (e.g., 4 for April):
Number of Months (up to 12) to evaluate for analog matches (e.g., 2 for Mar-Apr):
Year of last month to start evaluation:
Start Months Ahead (up to 12) to generate forecast:
Months to Forecast:
Number of Analogs to use for the analogs forecast (1-5):
For example, to forecast Feb-Mar 2017 using Nov 2016 - Jan 2017 data, choose 1 (Jan
is the last month for the pattern match), 3 (using 3 months of pattern matching), 2017 (the
last month for pattern matching is Jan 2017), 1 (you forecast start month is Feb, which is 1
month after your last pattern match month of Jan), and 2 (you are forecasting for 2 months,
Feb and Mar).
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| Theme to Forecast:
1 = SLP, 2 = Pressure level height (enter below), 3 = 2-Meter Temps, and 4 = Pressure level temperature (enter below)
Choose Variable (1-4):
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Pressure Levels:
0 = 1000mb, 1 = 925mb, 2 = 850mb, 3 = 700mb, 4 = 600mb, 5 = 500mb,
6 = 400mb, 7 = 300mb, 8 = 250mb, 9 = 200mb, 10 = 150mb, 11 = 100mb, 12 = 70mb,
13 = 50mb, 14 = 30mb, 15 = 20mb, 16 = 10mb
Enter Pressure Level for Height Analysis: (see above)
Enter Pressure Level for Temp Analysis: (see above)
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Weighting for Analog Selections (-100 to 100):
SLP
Pressure Height
T2M
Pressure Temp
SST
Use Index for Matching (1=PDO, 2=NPM, 3=SOI, 4=EOF1, 5=EOF2, 6=EOF3, 7=Combined EOFs)
Auto Weight (0 = No, 1 = Yes):
Detrend Data (0 = No, 1 = Yes):
Pearson or RMS Match (0 = RMS, 1 = Pearson):
Note 1: If the analysis OR forecast box is entirely over land, program might crash due to no SST data.
Note 2: Weights must be whole numbers. Total need not add to 100.
Note 3: Index choices supercede other numbers.
Note 4: Index: 1=PDO, 2=NPM, 3=SOI, 4=EOF1, 5=EOF2, 6=EOF3, 7=Combined EOF.
Note 5: Auto weighting uses a multiple linear regression to find the best historical correlations. Manual weights are ignored.
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EOF Parameters
Choose Theme (1-5 [see list above: 5 = SST]):
North Lat
South Lat
West Lon
East Lon
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Just Plot Correlations (0 = No, 1 = R-Value Maps, 2 = R2-Value Maps, 3 = Multiple R Correlation):
(Options 1 & 2 are mostly not useful. Option 3 is much more useful and takes 2 mins.)
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Override Selection Criteria and Manually Choose 5 Match Years:
Manual Override (0 = No, 1 = Yes):
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Note 1: Make sure that your match year is not for a month that is in the future!
Note 2: All weightings will be ignored.
Note 3: Make sure that all years are different.
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Experimental Analog Variable
0 = Custom [Paste values (carefully) into text box]
1 = Nenana Ice Classic Breakup (Day of Year) [choose month(s) before May]
2 = Fairbanks Winter Days With Low -20F [choose month(s) before October]
3 = Fairbanks Winter Snow Depth Average [choose month(s) before October]
4 = Yukon River Flow At Eagle in Sept [choose month(s) before September]
5 = Alaska Statewide D-J-F Temps [choose month(s) before December]
6 = Alaska Statewide D-J-F Precip [choose month(s) before December]
7 = Anchorage Seasonal Snow [choose month(s) before November]
8 = Bering Sea Max Ice Day of Year [choose month(s) before February]
9 = Bering Sea Max Ice Extent [choose month(s) before February]
10 = Atlantic Tropical ACE [choose month(s) before June]
11 = Sept Sea Ice Depart Trend [choose month(s) before September]
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