Z500 Forecast for Lat: 53 to 70 & Lon: 180 to 230

Using Analysis Area Lat: 5 to 40 & Lon: 120 to 240
Selection Month(s): Sep-Nov 2018 - Forecast Month: Dec-Feb 2019
Top 5 Atmospheric Match Years Are: 1950, 2017, 2005, 1980, and 2011.
Weights: SLP: -0.14, Z500: -0.09, T2M: 0.29, T500: -0.21, SST: -0.04.
Sep-Nov Following Dec-Feb Verification Sea Ice Forecast
Selected
Sep-Nov 2018
for Analysis


5 Analog
Composite
Forecast for
Dec-Feb 2019


Verification
Analog 1:
1950
Since the forecast month is in the future, there are no verification statistics to report
Analog 2:
2017
Analog 3:
2005
User-Specified Correlation
Average value from top 5 analogs is: 121.80

Click HERE to see the pattern match ranking for all years.
Analog 4:
1980
Analog 5:
2011
All Years Click HERE to see the pattern match ranking for all years. Click HERE to see the verification ranking for all years.
The multiple linear regression using domain averages produced the following variable R-values
Multiple R (no sign)= 0.22, R-square= 0.05, SLP R=-0.10, Z Height R=-0.09, 2-Meter Temp R= 0.02, T Height R=-0.10, SST R=-0.03, Sea Ice Extent R= 0.13
Here are the top match years based on selection/forecast domains
Sea Level Pressure: 1) 1959 2) 1957 3) 1969 4) 2006 5) 1991
500 mb Height: 1) 1960 2) 2014 3) 1968 4) 1978 5) 2004
2-Meter Temps: 1) 2005 2) 2004 3) 2009 4) 1958 5) 2016
500 mb Temps: 1) 2014 2) 1978 3) 1985 4) 1976 5) 1989
Sea Surface Temperatures: 1) 2003 2) 1966 3) 1990 4) 1958 5) 2004
Ice Concentration (always 60-90N): 1) 2009 2) 2015 3) 2011 4) 2005 5) 2017