SLP Forecast for Lat: -90 to 90 & Lon: 0 to 360

Using Analysis Area Lat: -90 to 90 & Lon: 0 to 360
Selection Month(s): Dec-Feb 2018 - Forecast Month: Mar 2018
Top 5 Atmospheric Match Years Are: 1994, 1991, 1986, 2015, and 2009.
Weights: SLP: 1.00, Z500: 0.00, T2M: 0.00, T925: 0.00, SST: 0.00.
Dec-Feb Following Mar Verification Sea Ice Forecast
Selected
Dec-Feb 2018
for Analysis


5 Analog
Composite
Forecast for
Mar 2018


Verification
Analog 1:
1994
Here are the verification (hindcast) ranks, 1 to 70, for each of the 5 analog years for the forecast area: 1994 (#68), 1991 (#16), 1986 (#67), 2015 (#51), and 2009 (#6)
Analog 2:
1991
Forecast better than 16.8% of simulations. A no-skill forecast is 50th percentile.
Analog 3:
1986
Colville River Breakup
Average value from top 5 analogs is: 9999.00

Click HERE to see the pattern match ranking for all years.
Analog 4:
2015
Analog 5:
2009
All Years Click HERE to see the pattern match ranking for all years. Click HERE to see the verification ranking for all years.
The multiple linear regression using domain averages produced the following variable R-values
Multiple R (no sign)= 0.43, R-square= 0.18, SLP R= 0.26, Z Height R= 0.14, 2-Meter Temp R= 0.20, T Height R= 0.26, SST R= 0.33, Sea Ice Extent R=-0.18
Here are the top match years based on selection/forecast domains
Sea Level Pressure: 1) 1994 2) 1991 3) 1986 4) 2015 5) 2009
500 mb Height: 1) 1994 2) 1999 3) 1989 4) 2001 5) 2008
2-Meter Temps: 1) 1971 2) 2014 3) 2008 4) 1996 5) 1975
925 mb Temps: 1) 2014 2) 2009 3) 1971 4) 1989 5) 2008
Sea Surface Temperatures: 1) 2009 2) 2014 3) 1996 4) 1962 5) 2006
Ice Concentration (always 60-90N): 1) 2017 2) 2005 3) 2016 4) 2015 5) 2007