SLP Forecast for Lat: 60 to 70 & Lon: 195 to 220

Using Analysis Area Lat: 60 to 70 & Lon: 195 to 220
Selection Month(s): Mar-Apr 2018 - Forecast Month: May 2018
Top 5 Atmospheric Match Years Are: 1951, 1974, 1995, 2007, and 1954.
Weights: SLP: 0.09, Z500: 0.39, T2M: -1.13, T925: 0.57, SST: -0.27.
Mar-Apr Following May Verification Sea Ice Forecast
Selected
Mar-Apr 2018
for Analysis


5 Analog
Composite
Forecast for
May 2018


Verification
Analog 1:
1951
Here are the verification (hindcast) ranks, 1 to 70, for each of the 5 analog years for the forecast area: 1951 (#48), 1974 (#31), 1995 (#24), 2007 (#33), and 1954 (#52)
Analog 2:
1974
Forecast better than 39.9% of simulations. A no-skill forecast is 50th percentile.
Analog 3:
1995
Nenana Breakup Date
Average value from top 5 analogs is: 121.00

Click HERE to see the pattern match ranking for all years.
Analog 4:
2007
Analog 5:
1954
All Years Click HERE to see the pattern match ranking for all years. Click HERE to see the verification ranking for all years.
The multiple linear regression using domain averages produced the following variable R-values
Multiple R (no sign)= 0.26, R-square= 0.07, SLP R= 0.15, Z Height R= 0.17, 2-Meter Temp R=-0.06, T Height R=-0.04, SST R=-0.09, Sea Ice Extent R= 0.20
Here are the top match years based on selection/forecast domains
Sea Level Pressure: 1) 1955 2) 1963 3) 1958 4) 1964 5) 1956
500 mb Height: 1) 1954 2) 1958 3) 1978 4) 2014 5) 1983
2-Meter Temps: 1) 1980 2) 2014 3) 1958 4) 1967 5) 1990
925 mb Temps: 1) 2014 2) 1990 3) 1957 4) 1978 5) 2015
Sea Surface Temperatures: 1) 1981 2) 1987 3) 2014 4) 1970 5) 2003
Ice Concentration (always 60-90N): 1) 2017 2) 1989 3) 2009 4) 2011 5) 2015