SLP Forecast for Lat: 20 to 90 & Lon: 0 to 360

Using Analysis Area Lat: 0 to 90 & Lon: 0 to 360
Selection Month(s): Jan-Feb 2019 - Forecast Month: Jul-Feb 2020
Top 5 Atmospheric Match Years Are: 1978, 1990, 2003, 1987, and 2007.
Weights: SLP: 0.00, Z500: 0.00, T2M: 0.00, T925: 0.00, SST: 1.00.
Jan-Feb Following Jul-Feb Verification Sea Ice Forecast
Selected
Jan-Feb 2019
for Analysis


5 Analog
Composite
Forecast for
Jul-Feb 2020


Verification
Analog 1:
1978
Since the forecast month is in the future, there are no verification statistics to report
Analog 2:
1990
Analog 3:
2003
User-Specified Correlation
Average value from top 5 analogs is: 119.00

Click HERE to see the pattern match ranking for all years.
Analog 4:
1987
Analog 5:
2007
All Years Click HERE to see the pattern match ranking for all years. Click HERE to see the verification ranking for all years.
The multiple linear regression using domain averages produced the following variable R-values
Multiple R (no sign)= 0.32, R-square= 0.10, SLP R= 0.29, Z Height R= 0.09, 2-Meter Temp R= 0.10, T Height R= 0.09, SST R= 0.07, Sea Ice Extent R= 0.01
Here are the top match years based on selection/forecast domains
Sea Level Pressure: 1) 1959 2) 2003 3) 1982 4) 1967 5) 1979
500 mb Height: 1) 1987 2) 1959 3) 1979 4) 1953 5) 1978
2-Meter Temps: 1) 2003 2) 1995 3) 2017 4) 1987 5) 1994
925 mb Temps: 1) 2003 2) 1995 3) 2017 4) 2006 5) 2013
Sea Surface Temperatures: 1) 1978 2) 1990 3) 2003 4) 1987 5) 2007
Ice Concentration (always 60-90N): 1) 2007 2) 2015 3) 2006 4) 2005 5) 2009