SLP Forecast for Lat: -20 to -10 & Lon: 300 to 340
Using Analysis Area Lat: -20 to -10 & Lon: 300 to 340
Selection Month(s): Jun-Nov 2017 - Forecast Month: Dec 2017
Top 5 Atmospheric Match Years Are: 1981, 2005, 2007, 1986, and 2006.
Weights: SLP: 1.00, Z500: 0.00, SHEAR: 0.00, RH600: 0.00, SST: 0.00.
Jun-Nov Following Dec Verification Sea Ice Forecast
Selected
Jun-Nov 2017
for Analysis


5 Analog
Composite
Forecast for
Dec 2017


Verification
Analog 1:
1981
Analog 2:
2005
Here are the verification (hindcast) ranks, 1 to 70, for each of the 5 analog years for the forecast area: 1964 (#11), 1974 (#44), 1954 (#56), 1952 (#3), and 1950 (#6)
Analog 3:
2007
Forecast better than 76.0% of simulations. A no-skill forecast is 50th percentile.
Analog 4:
1986
Analog 5:
2006
All Years Click HERE to see the pattern match ranking for all years. Click HERE to see the verification ranking for all years.
The multiple linear regression using domain averages produced the following variable R-values
Multiple R (no sign)= 0.43, R-square= 0.19, SLP R=-0.04, Z Height R=-0.13, 2-Meter Temp R=-0.01, T Height R=-0.12, SST R= 0.36, Sea Ice Extent R= 0.10
Here are the top match years based on selection/forecast domains
Sea Level Pressure: 1) 1981 2) 2005 3) 2007 4) 1986 5) 2006
500 mb Height: 1) 2016 2) 2014 3) 2010 4) 2012 5) 2015
2-Meter Temps: 1) 2008 2) 2007 3) 1973 4) 1998 5) 1950
600 mb Temps: 1) 2008 2) 2014 3) 2005 4) 2004 5) 1998
Sea Surface Temperatures: 1) 2011 2) 2008 3) 1996 4) 1985 5) 1988
Ice Concentration (always 60-90N): 1) 2015 2) 2016 3) 2010 4) 2011 5) 2008